里约奥运会：兹卡病毒扩散阴影笼罩里约奥运

Researchers Weigh Risks of Zika Spreading at Rio Olympics
兹卡病毒扩散阴影笼罩里约奥运

RIO DE JANEIRO — With about 500,000 people expected to visit Brazil for the Olympics here this year, researchers are scrambling to figure how much of a risk the Games might pose in spreading the Zika virus around the world.

里约热内卢——鉴于今年预计会有大约50万人来巴西观看在这里举办的奥运会，研究人员正在争分夺秒地研究，奥运会把兹卡病毒传播到全世界的风险有多大。

Infectious disease specialists are particularly focused on the potential for Zika to spread to the United States. As many as 200,000 Americans are expected to travel to Rio de Janeiro for the Olympics in August. When they return to the Northern Hemisphere and its summer heat, far more mosquitoes will be around to potentially transmit the virus in the United States.

传染病专家尤其关注的是兹卡(Zika)扩散到美国的可能性。今年8月，去里约热内卢观看奥运会的美国人预计会多达20万人。等他们在炎炎夏日回到北半球时，美国可以传播该病毒的蚊子将大大增多。

Brazilian researchers believe that Zika, which has been linked to severe birth defects, came to their country during another major sports event — the 2014 World Cup — when hundreds of thousands of visitors flowed into Brazil. Virus trackers here say that the strain raging in Brazil probably came from Polynesia, where an outbreak was rattling small islands around the Pacific.

巴西研究人员认为，和严重的先天畸形有关联的兹卡病毒，是在另一场体育盛事，即2014年的世界杯期间传播到他们国家的，当时有成千上万的游客涌向巴西。这里的病毒追踪人员称，在巴西肆虐的这种病毒可能来自波利尼西亚。当时，那里爆发的疫情让太平洋上的周边小岛紧张不安。

As many as 1.5 million people are believed to have contracted the virus in Brazil since then, and the authorities are now investigating thousands of reported cases of babies being born recently with brain damage and abnormally small heads. Zika has spread to more than 20 nations and territories in the Western Hemisphere, according to the World Health Organization, illustrating how quickly the epidemic can expand even without a big international gathering.

据信从那时以来，已有多达150万人在巴西感染了该病毒。汇报的数据显示，最近出生的数千名婴儿出现了脑损伤和头部小得不正常的现象。当局现在正在调查这些病例。据世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)介绍，兹卡已经扩散到了西半球的20多个国家和地区。这表明即便没有大型的国际活动，这种传染病也能迅速扩散。

By itself, the virus is not normally life-threatening, and most people who become infected have no symptoms at all.

该病毒本身通常不会危及生命，大部分感染者根本不会有什么症状。

The big question is whether Zika is responsible for the huge increase in birth defects reported by doctors, hospitals and other medical officials in Brazil over the last few months. That connection has still not been proved.

巴西的医生、医院及其他医疗官员在过去几个月里反映，先天畸形大幅增多，于是引出了一个大问题：这是否应该归咎于兹卡？不过两者之间的联系依然未得到证实。

“There is more and more concern that there may be a causal relationship, but a lot of the work so far is to rule out other possible causes,” Dr. Bruce Aylward, an assistant director general at the World Health Organization, said on Thursday, adding that it might take six to nine months to know for sure.

“人们越来越担心可能存在因果关系，但迄今为止的大量工作都是在排除其他可能的原因，”世卫组织助理总干事布鲁斯•艾尔沃德(Bruce Aylward)在周四说。他接着表示，可能需要六到九个月的时间才能知道确切答案。

Asked whether the W.H.O. would advise people not to travel to Brazil for the Olympics, he replied: “I would think that would be very, very unlikely.”

在被问及世卫组织是否会建议人们不要去巴西看奥运会时，他回答说：“我认为那是非常非常不可能的。”

American officials in the United States said Thursday that there was little likelihood of a Zika outbreak in the United States, adding that the country’s long history of mosquito control efforts had curbed other mosquito-borne diseases, like dengue or chikungunya, in the past.

美国国内的官员周四称，美国爆发兹卡疫情的可能性微乎其微，并接着表示，美国控制蚊患有悠久的历史，抑制住了蚊虫携带的其他一些疾病，如登革热和基孔肯雅病。

But because the virus can be carried in a person’s blood to a new country, then passed to others by mosquito bites, researchers are trying to determine whether a big global event like the Olympics could add to the global transmission of the disease.

但因为兹卡病毒可以通过人的血液进入另一个国家，再通过蚊虫叮咬传染给其他人，研究人员正在努力确定像奥运会这样的全球性大型活动，是否会导致该疾病在全球传播。

“Infected travelers departing from Brazil are expected to return to regions that have the potential to sustain transmission,” said Moritz Kraemer, a scholar at Oxford University who researches the global spread of viruses, emphasizing that many travelers would return to their home countries during the summer. “So the international spread of the virus might increase substantially due to higher activity of mosquitoes.”

“离开巴西的被感染游客，预计会回到适宜传播的地区，”牛津大学(Oxford University)研究病毒全球扩散的学者莫里茨•克雷默(Moritz Kraemer)说。他强调，很多游客回到各自国家时都是夏季。“因为蚊子夏季更活跃，所以该病毒在全球扩散的可能性可能会显著增加。”

Using worldwide temperature profiles and air travel routes, Mr. Kraemer and other researchers found that more than 60 percent of the population of the United States lives in areas where Zika can be transmitted during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, when the Games will be held. A much smaller number, about 23 million people, live in parts of the United States where Zika can be transmitted year-round, like Florida and Texas, the researchers found.

通过研究全球温度曲线及空中旅行路线，克雷默等研究人员发现，美国逾60%的人口居住的地方处在北半球夏季——也就是奥运会举行的时候——兹卡病毒可能传播的区域。佛罗里达州及德克萨斯州等地兹卡病毒可能全年传播，但涉及的人口要少得多，约有2300万人。

In the Southern Hemisphere, by contrast, it is summer right now, and mosquitoes are rapidly spreading the disease in Brazil and other warm parts of Latin America and the Caribbean.

相比之下，南半球现在是夏季，蚊子正在巴西等拉丁美洲及加勒比海地区的温暖区域迅速传播兹卡病毒。

That may pose a particular risk for big events like Brazil’s Carnival, which goes into full swing next month, but Olympics officials emphasize that it will be winter in Rio when the Games are held, which could limit the spread of mosquito-borne diseases.

这可能会给重大活动造成威胁，尤其是巴西将于下个月全面开展的狂欢节。但奥委会官员强调，里约奥运会将在冬季举行，或许会限制蚊媒疾病的传播。

Even so, Brazilian virologists contend that mosquitoes can still easily transmit viruses in Rio and other tropical cities year-round, pointing out that Zika may have begun spreading in Brazil during its winter in 2014.

即便如此，巴西病毒学家认为蚊子仍然可以轻易地全年在里约等热带城市传播病毒，并指出兹卡病毒可能就是于2014年冬季开始在巴西传播的。

Brazil has been the worst-hit country in the Western Hemisphere and the authorities are under intense pressure domestically to contain the Zika epidemic right away, regardless of the Olympics.

巴西是西半球受影响最大的国家，且不论奥运会，巴西当局在国内正承受着立即遏制兹卡疫情的巨大压力。

Mario Andrada, a spokesman for the Rio Olympics organizing committee, said that there had been no discussions about canceling the Games or moving them to another city because of Zika.

里约奥运组委会发言人马里奥•安德拉达(Mario Andrada)表示，组委会并未因为兹卡病毒而讨论取消或更换城市举办奥运会的事宜。

He added that teams were reviewing Olympic venues daily to eliminate problems like stagnant water where mosquitoes can breed. He said officials were also seeking to work on the “psychological aspect” of athletes being fearful about getting Zika by guaranteeing a supply of mosquito repellent and by keeping teams from every nation informed about the virus.

他还表示，相关团队每天都会检查奥运场馆，以消除积水等问题——蚊子可以在积水中繁衍。他表示，官员们还在设法解决担心感染兹卡病毒的运动员的“心理层面”问题，保证提供驱蚊剂，并及时告知每个国家的代表团有关该病毒的消息。

“The risk is no joke, so we will maintain this inspection program until the end of the Paralympics,” Mr. Andrada said, referring to the multisport event that will be held in September, after the Olympics.

“这种威胁不是玩笑，因此我们将保留这个检查计划，直到残奥会结束，”安德拉达说。残奥会包括多个项目，计划在奥运会闭幕后于9月进行。

The fears over Zika are merely the latest challenge to the Rio Olympics. Sailors have complained angrily about competing in the city’s sewage-infested bay. Prosecutors have asserted that builders paid bribes to win contracts for Olympic venues. Clashes have broken out over evictions to make way for Olympic projects. Deep spending cuts have come as Brazil reels from its worst economic slump in decades.

对于兹卡的担忧只是里约奥运会面临的最新挑战。帆船运动员愤怒地抱怨要在该市充满污水的海湾举行比赛。检察部门声称建造商为获得奥运会场馆的建筑合同而行贿。为给奥运工程让路而赶走居民的行为引发了多次冲突。由于陷入数十年来最严重的经济滑坡，巴西还在大幅削减开支。

“Plagued by so many problems, Rio is clearly in a league of its own among host cities of the Olympics in recent memory,” Andrew Zimbalist, a scholar who specializes in sports economics at Smith College, said.

“里约受到了诸多问题的困扰，与近些年举办奥运会的城市相比，明显不属于一个级别，”史密斯学院(Smith College)研究体育经济学的学者安德鲁•津巴利斯特(Andrew Zimbalist)说。

While anemic ticket sales had already been disappointing organizers, concerns are growing that travelers from the United States and other countries could cancel plans to visit because of Zika.

门票销售不佳已经让组织方感到失望，同时人们又愈发担心美国及其他国家的旅行者可能会因为兹卡病毒而取消计划。

“People have called to ask, ‘If this explodes, how would I cancel my trip?’” said Anbritt Stengele, president of Sports Traveler, a company in Chicago which specializes in travel packages for major sporting events. She said that about 15 percent of her clients who had booked trips for the Olympics had called in recent days to ask about the Zika virus and the possibility of modifying their trips.

“不少人打电话来问，‘如果疫情爆发，我该如何取消行程？’”芝加哥旅行公司Sports Traveler的总裁安布利特•施滕格勒(Anbritt Stengele)说。这家公司主推针对重大体育赛事的旅行项目。她表示，预定了奥运会之旅的客户中，大约有15%近日致电询问有关兹卡病毒的情况，讨论调整行程的可能性。

“It’s a tricky situation for us, because everything is paid for in advance — airfare, hotels, ground transportation,” Ms. Stengele said. She said most of the vacation groups traveling to the Summer Olympics include women and families with children.

“对我们来说，情况相当棘手，因为所有费用都是提前支付的，机票、酒店和地面交通都是这样，”施滕格勒说。她表示，大多数开展夏季奥运会之旅的度假团都包含女性和有小孩的家庭。

“This is a completely different demographic,” she said, compared with the largely male tourists who attended the 2014 World Cup. “The Olympics is about families.”

与2014年世界杯以男性为主的游客群体相比，“这次的人口构成完全不同，”她说。“奥运会是全家观看的活动。”

Now athletes and fans alike are trying to determine whether it makes sense to travel to Rio. Alysia Montaño, an American runner who competed at the United States Track and Field Championships while eight months pregnant, said the Zika virus could affect her decision to bring her young daughter, who will turn 2 in August, to the Games.

此时此刻，运动员和体育迷都在设法决定是否应该去里约。曾经在怀孕八个月的时候参加美国田径锦标赛的跑步项目运动员阿莉西亚•蒙塔诺(Alysia Montaño)表示，兹卡病毒可能会影响她带年幼的女儿一起参加奥运会的决定。小姑娘将于8月迎来2岁生日。

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