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　　With more than 50 stores in the country, China is the largest market for Italian menswear brand Zegna. And its owner is worried. “I am more and more concerned, I’ve seen a slowing trend,” Ermenegildo Zegna told the Financial Times. “I am cautious about the outlook for next year; there are many uncertainties.”

　　中国是意大利男装品牌杰尼亚(Zegna)的最大市场，该品牌在华拥有50多家门店。目前，杰尼亚的老板忧心忡忡。“我越来越担心，我看到了一个正在放缓的趋势，”杰尼亚首席执行官埃尔梅内吉尔多·杰尼亚(Ermenegildo Zegna)向英国《金融时报》表示，“我对明年的前景持谨慎态度;有很多不确定因素。”

　　Mr Zegna is not alone. Companies in the luxury sector have seen an average share price decline of 20 per cent since mid-May, according to RBC Capital Markets, partly driven by fears that after two years of strong growth, Chinese consumers are reining in sales in the face of slowing GDP growth and a trade war with the US.

　　杰尼亚先生并不是唯一感到担忧的人。根据加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)的数据，自5月中以来，奢侈品行业公司的股价平均下跌了20%，部分原因是，市场担心在连续两年的强劲增长后，国内生产总值(GDP)增长放缓和与美国的贸易战正促使中国消费者收紧支出，进而抑制奢侈品行业的销售。

　　China is crucial for luxury brands: Chinese consumers account for a third of luxury sales, and contributed about three-quarters of spending growth in the sector in the eight years to the end of 2016, according to consultancy Bain.

　　对奢侈品品牌而言，中国市场至关重要：根据咨询公司贝恩(Bain)的数据，在截至2016年底的8年时间里，中国消费者的购买占奢侈品销售总额的三分之一，贡献了该行业销售增长的约四分之三。

　　After falls in the wake of an official anti-corruption campaign launched in 2013 that cracked down on the practice of gifting, China’s domestic luxury sales began to rebound in mid-2016. They expanded a “spectacular” 20 per cent last year to Rmb142bn ($20.4bn), adds Bain.

　　2013年，中国政府发起了一场打击送礼现象的反腐运动，中国国内奢侈品销售随即下降，之后在2016年年中开始反弹。贝恩补充说，去年中国奢侈品销售实现了20%的“惊人”增长，达到1420亿元人民币(合204亿美元)。

　　Following a strong start to 2018, brands have begun to signal concern over the shorter-term prospects for the China market. LVMH, the owner of Louis Vuitton and Dior, said during its third-quarter results last month it would be “vigilant” due to an “uncertain geopolitical and monetary context”.

　　继2018年迎来强劲开局后，各大品牌开始暗示对中国市场的短期前景感到担忧。路易威登(Louis Vuitton)和迪奥(Dior)品牌的母公司路威酩轩(LVMH)在上月发布第三季度业绩时表示，由于“地缘政治和货币环境的不确定性”，该公司将“保持警惕”。

　　Mr Zegna is equally cautious. “We have seen a little slowdown this year, and I think the currency exchange fluctuations has an impact on the psychology of the consumer,” he said. China’s renminbi is close to its lowest rate against the dollar for a decade, making imports more expensive.

　　杰尼亚先生同样持谨慎态度。“我们今年看到市场有所放缓，我认为汇率波动会影响消费者的心理，”他说。人民币对美元汇率已接近10年来的最低水平，这使得进口商品变得更加昂贵。

　　Despite this sell-off, analysts warn that fears of a China slowdown have been exaggerated, with sales of luxury brands such as Gucci and Louis Vuitton seeing strong growth in the last quarter, alongside high-end car brands.

　　尽管出现此轮抛售，但分析师警告称，市场对中国经济放缓的担忧过度。古驰(Gucci)和路易威登等奢侈品品牌，以及高端汽车的销售上季度出现强劲增长。

　　“Macro concerns have trumped micro reality in the luxury sector,” said Erwan Rambourg, a sector analyst at HSBC, adding that “growth is bound to slow as the sector enters year three of a strong recovery.” While China’s stock market has seen a weak year, “the recent equity market pullback is in no way comparable to the mid-2015 slump and consumer confidence is much stronger as well,” he adds.

　　“宏观方面的担忧盖过了奢侈品行业的微观现实，”汇丰(HSBC)行业分析师埃尔万·朗堡(Erwan Rambourg)表示。他补充说：“随着奢侈品行业进入强劲复苏的第三年，增长肯定会放缓。”他还指出，尽管中国股市今年表现疲弱，但“近期股市回调与2015年年中的暴跌完全不可同日而语，消费者信心也显著增强。”

　　Beijing has also helped the sector by cutting import taxes on luxury goods in July, allowing companies to cut prices by 4 per cent on average in a move which boosts sales, according to HSBC.

　　汇丰表示，中国政府今年7月下调奢侈品进口关税也帮助了该行业，使各公司能够平均降价4%，从而促进了销售增长。

　　“No matter what people say about trade wars?.?.?.?Wealthy consumers in China are still spending,” says Daniel Zipser, a Shanghai-based partner at McKinsey.

　　“无论人们怎么谈论贸易战……中国的富裕消费者仍在消费，”咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)驻上海的合伙人泽沛达(Daniel Zipser)表示。